Even with decline in baptisms, the church is still true

It has become fashionable in recent years to make doomsday predictions about the future of the LDS Church based on the recent decline in convert baptisms.

Of course, this analysis is grossly oversimplified and demonstrates an entirely underdeveloped sense of history. Convert baptisms have risen and fallen in the past due to a variety of factors: wars interrupting missionary service in the '40s and '70s, 18-month missions in the '80s, et cetera.

To predict the extinction of Mormonism or the failure of missionary work based on a relatively short trend of declining conversions is short-sighted. If you want to accurately predict the future of missionary work, you have to take into account historical patterns, current church initiatives -- oh yeah, and you have to be God.

I do think this is an important discussion to have, and I plan on investing more time in examining the external problems facing the LDS missionary program. But I also think it's important to put all of this in context.

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